Productivity shock dominates UK business cycles, preference shift crucial for employment
The study looked at what causes ups and downs in the UK economy since World War II. They found that changes in productivity are the main reason for these economic cycles, while shifts in people's preferences also play a big role in how many jobs are available. The researchers used a special model to figure this out and found that productivity changes are not really influenced by things like government spending or interest rates, but are somewhat affected by oil prices and taxes. On the other hand, people's preferences are influenced by things like how much money is in circulation and the prices of goods and services. These findings help us understand why the economy goes through good and bad times, and how different factors can affect it.