Exchange rate shocks impact prices differently, changing inflation forecasts dramatically.
The article explores how changes in exchange rates affect prices. By focusing on the underlying reasons for these rate changes, the researchers found that different types of shocks can lead to varying impacts on import and consumer prices. For instance, prices respond differently to exchange rate movements depending on what caused the movements, such as domestic demand or monetary policy shocks. This new approach helps predict how these impacts can change over time, explaining why some currency fluctuations lead to sharper price increases than others. The study also uses this method to forecast how a sharp depreciation of the UK's currency following the Brexit vote will affect prices.