The business cycle is not just a temporary hiccup in the economy, but a natural part of how things work. Even without specific cycles, the economy still has ups and downs. Trying to predict these cycles is tricky, especially for things like potential GDP and unemployment rates. Some new ideas about the job market might help explain why unemployment changes over time. Overall, it's tough for policymakers to figure out the "normal" levels of these economic factors, and some theories even say it's not possible to measure them accurately in real-time.