Unemployment trend reveals stable natural rate despite slow labor reallocation.
The article discusses how the unemployment rate has changed over time. By analyzing job finding and separation rates, researchers found a stable natural rate of unemployment at 6 percent. Slower labor reallocation and weak output growth have contributed to high unemployment since the Great Recession. Changes in inflow rates before 1985 have also affected unemployment trends. The natural rate concept is a better measure than traditional ones due to its statistical precision, policy relevance, and close connection to economic theory.