Yield curves predict exchange rates better than random walk, study finds.
The yield curve can help predict exchange rates by looking at interest rates in different countries. By analyzing data from the UK, Canada, Japan, and the US between 1985-2005, researchers found that factors like the level, slope, and curvature of the yield curve can forecast future exchange rate movements and currency returns up to two years ahead. This method is more accurate than simply guessing or using a random approach.