Economics, Econometrics and Finance
4 years ago

Leading indicators show simple models outperform complex ones in forecasting US economy.

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SSRN Electronic Journal
Are there any Reliable Leading Indicators for U.S. Inflation and GDP Growth?
Massimiliano Marcellino, Anindya Banerjee, Igor Masten

Paper Summary

The article compares different methods for predicting US inflation and GDP growth using a large set of indicators. They found that simple forecasting tools like autoregressive models performed well, while the leading indicators showed instability.

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