Unveiling the True Drivers of Emerging Market Business Cycles
Emerging market business cycles are different from developed economies, with volatile current accounts, high consumption fluctuations, and sudden stops in capital inflows. Despite these differences, a standard model can explain both types of markets. The researchers suggest that emerging markets experience significant fluctuations in trend growth due to frequent policy changes. By analyzing consumption and net exports, they found that shocks to trend growth, not temporary fluctuations, drive fluctuations in emerging markets. This means that the main source of economic ups and downs in these markets is changes in long-term productivity, rather than short-term variations.