Inflation uncertainty hinders economic growth in ASEAN-5 countries, study finds.
The study looked at how inflation, inflation uncertainty, and economic growth are connected in five ASEAN countries from 1980 to 2011. They used a model called Exponential GARCH to analyze the relationship between these factors. The main findings are: inflation uncertainty increases more with positive inflation surprises, inflation shocks lead to more uncertainty, uncertainty doesn't cause inflation, and inflation has a negative impact on economic growth, both directly and indirectly through uncertainty.