Low loan-to-value commercial mortgages may actually pose higher default risk.
Commercial mortgage lenders use loan-to-value and debt service coverage ratios to assess the risk of default. Recent studies have questioned the role of loan-to-value ratio in commercial mortgage risk assessment. A new study with a large database of loan histories found that lenders adjust loan terms based on other risk factors, making low loan-to-value ratio loans riskier than expected. Lenders' pricing of loans is a good indicator of loan risk. While loan-to-value ratio still has some impact on default risk, lender pricing accounts for most of the relationship between loan-to-value ratio and default.