South Africa's Import Prices Affected by Exchange Rates, Impacting Inflation
Understanding how changes in exchange rates affect import prices is important for predicting inflation and guiding monetary policy decisions. A study on South Africa's import prices from 1980 to 2009 found that only about half of exchange rate changes are reflected in import prices within a year, and about 30% within six months. The analysis suggests that long-term pass-through is around 55%, lower than previous estimates. The study also shows that pass-through rates varied with trade and capital account liberalization in the 1990s, and were slower under inflation targeting. Additionally, pass-through decreased with recent exchange rate volatility and was higher for small currency appreciations.