The article introduces a new method to test how well we can predict systemic risks in the financial system. By analyzing forecasts of risk measures for different financial institutions, the researchers can identify which ones contribute the most to overall risk. They use simple tests to check the accuracy of these forecasts, focusing on a measure called marginal expected shortfall (MES). The study shows that the forecasts for MES and another risk measure called SRISK are reliable for medium-term predictions. Additionally, the researchers develop an early warning system for potential future financial crises based on these tests.