The article predicts different types of economic downturns in Germany using a special model. By looking at six key indicators, the model can tell when the economy is growing, slowing down a little, or in a severe recession. The researchers found that a model with three states is better at spotting mild recessions than one with only two states. This model accurately identified all the ups and downs in the economy during the study period. It also helped predict the biggest drop in GDP in 2009 and the start of the Great Recession before it happened.