Economics, Econometrics and Finance
4 years ago

New study reveals key to predicting inflation trends for policymakers

SSRN Electronic Journal
Inflation and Monetary Dynamics in the Us: a Quantity-Theory Approach
Fabio C. Bagliano, Claudio Morana

Paper Summary

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The article explores the relationship between inflation and money growth in the US since 1960. A new measure of long-term inflation trend is created, based on excess nominal money growth. This measure is compared to other ways of measuring inflation not related to money growth. The new measure performs well in predicting inflation over a two- to three-year period, providing useful information for policymakers.