Economics, Econometrics and Finance
4 years ago

Unreliable Estimates of Unemployment Rate Could Impact Monetary Policy Decisions.

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics
How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment
Doug Staiger, James H. Stock, Mark W. Watson

Paper Summary

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The natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is hard to pin down precisely, with estimates in 1990 ranging from 5.1% to 7.7%. Different methods and data sources all lead to this uncertainty, making it tricky to use the NAIRU to guide monetary policy.