South Africa's Potential Output Decline Pre-1994 Reversed Swiftly After Transition
The paper identifies shocks to South Africa's economy by analyzing demand and supply factors. It separates fiscal and monetary demand shocks and uses historical data to show changes in potential output before and after 1994. The study finds a significant decline in potential output before 1994, followed by a quick recovery after the political transition. The analysis is supported by consistent impulse response functions, matching business cycle data, and aligning supply shocks with historical events.