New model predicts interest rates, inflation with precision, shaping economic stability.
The paper discusses how central banks can use expected inflation to control nominal interest rates effectively. By targeting the nominal interest rate, the central bank can influence inflation and stabilize the price level. Empirical evidence from the US post-World War II period supports this model, showing that nominal interest rates, monetary base growth rates, and inflation rates behave as predicted. In contrast, earlier periods before World War I did not follow this interest-rate smoothing pattern.