Emerging markets vulnerable to dangerous cocktail of currency fluctuations and debt.
The study looked at sudden stops in capital flows in 32 countries and how balance-sheet effects play a role. Sudden stops with big currency fluctuations mostly happen in emerging markets. These stops tend to happen in groups of different countries that share vulnerability to big currency swings. This vulnerability could be due to needing to adjust tradable goods or having a lot of dollar debts in the banking system. Countries with a lot of tradable goods and high dollar debts are more likely to have sudden stops. The relationship between tradable goods and dollar debts in predicting sudden stops is not straightforward, suggesting that high debts and high dollar use can be risky.