Credit-driven boom distorts economies, challenges traditional output measurement methods.
The Phillips Curve relationship between inflation and the output gap or unemployment gap may not be reliable for predicting sustainable output levels in European countries, especially during financial crises. The recent crisis revealed that conventional methods for estimating potential output and output gaps did not account for the impact of credit-driven booms on the economy. Financial market conditions can lead to long-term economic distortions that affect policymaking decisions. Incorporating financial factors into these estimates could improve their accuracy.