US Economy Experiencing Longest Expansion Ever Due to Decline in Volatility
The U.S. economy has seen a significant decrease in output volatility since the 1950s, with a threefold reduction in quarterly output growth variability. This decline has led to longer economic expansions. Factors contributing to this decline include less volatile government spending, consumption, and investment. The relationship between output and inflation volatility is also highlighted, with a decrease in inflation volatility corresponding to the return to trend in output volatility. The study shows that the decrease in output volatility is primarily due to a decrease in the standard deviation of output shocks.