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4 years ago

RBI to Revise Inflation Targeting Framework Following CPI Forecasting Model.

Academy of Marketing Studies journal
Forecasting Price Levels in India - An Arima Framework
Arindam Banerjee

Paper Summary

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The article forecasts price levels in India using a model based on monthly data of the Consumer Price Index. The researchers used the ARIMA technique to predict CPI in India, finding an ARIMA (1,1,5) model. The forecasted CPI growth rate was 6.67%, close to the actual rate of 6.68% during the validation period. The model could help policymakers regulate inflation in India, with the RBI already considering changes to the CPI-inflation targeting framework based on the findings.