Economics, Econometrics and Finance
4 years ago

Money surprises drive interest rates up and down, impacting economy.

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity
Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates
Robert J. Shiller, John Y. Campbell, Kermit L. Schoenholtz, Laurence Weiss

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Interest rates have been going up when there's unexpectedly a lot of money in the system, and down when there's less than expected. This affects both short and long-term interest rates, like government bond yields. This pattern has caught the attention of experts in the market and academia.