Government spending shocks have negative effects on GDP and private investment.
The study looked at how government spending and tax cuts affect the economy in 5 countries. They found that government spending usually has small effects on GDP, and tax cuts don't work faster than spending increases. Over time, the impact of government spending and tax cuts on GDP has gotten weaker, especially on private investment. After 1980, government spending had positive effects on long interest rates. Government spending doesn't have a big impact on inflation. The variance of fiscal shocks has decreased, which has led to less variation in GDP after 1980.