Economics, Econometrics and Finance
4 years ago

Unemployment predictions get more accurate with changing oil prices.

SSRN Electronic Journal
Constructing Seasonally Adjusted Data with Time-Varying Confidence Intervals
Siem Jan Koopman, Philip Hans Franses

Paper Summary

Related papers

Theme background image
Mathematics
8 years ago

New measures revolutionize reliable seasonal adjustment for economic data analysis.

Multicollinearity
Measurement Uncertainty
Least Squares
2 views
Economics, Econometrics and Finance
4 years ago

Unemployment predictions get more accurate with changing oil prices.

Macroeconomic Analysis
Oil Price Shocks
2 views
Economics, Econometrics and Finance
8 years ago

Financial asset prices reveal hidden risks with long-term economic impact.

Financial Volatility
Oil Price Shocks
Macroeconomic Analysis
2 views

Seasonal adjustment methods can help remove seasonal patterns from data. Researchers modified a model to account for changing uncertainty in economic trends during different business cycles. By applying this modified model to US unemployment data, they found that confidence intervals for seasonally adjusted unemployment rates vary based on past changes in oil prices.