The study tested a global trade model's accuracy in predicting wheat market prices. The model, GTAP-AGR, was found to be unable to accurately forecast price volatility. This suggests that trade and poverty analyses relying on this model's predictions may be flawed. The study highlights the importance of validating models to improve their accuracy. The structure of trade and trade elasticities were identified as key factors influencing the model's ability to predict price volatility in specific regions.