Options-based model reveals hidden impact of exchange rate rearrangements.
The article presents a model that uses options to understand how exchange rates behave in a target zone system. The model shows that exchange rates can be influenced by rearranging the target zone boundaries. By applying this model to the forint's depreciation in 2003, the study found that the shift in the target zone directly affected the exchange rate. Additionally, changing expectations about the final exchange rate in the EMU and increased uncertainty also played a role in the currency depreciation. The study also analyzed how other European currencies were affected by similar target zone rearrangements.