Business, Management and Accounting
4 years ago

Survey-based seasonal measures more precise than aggregate data, impacting business strategies.

Seasonality in Surveys a Comparison of Belgian, French and German Business Tests
Éric Ghysels, Marc Nerlove

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Seasonal effects in monthly business surveys can be identified using different methods, such as dummy variables or specific questions in the surveys. Comparing Belgian, French, and German surveys showed that using survey-based seasonal measures is more accurate than aggregate measures. Survey-based measures are more precise and provide firm-specific observations. Asking respondents to distinguish between seasonal and cyclical effects yielded consistent results.