New method accurately predicts group choices without individual data.
The article introduces a method to estimate a model when we don't have data on individual choices. Instead, it uses group data to calculate the likelihood of certain choices. By summing up the probabilities of different scenarios, the model can predict how likely it is for a certain number of people to make a specific choice. This method, based on maximum likelihood, was tested on real data and showed promising results in predicting discrete choices.