Winning big in land auctions may actually be a curse.
The study looked at how the stock market reacts to land auctions for real estate projects in Hong Kong. They found that when bidders are unsure, they tend to bid lower, confirming the winner's curse theory. Joint bidding doesn't lead to higher bids as expected, but actually reduces competition. The market sees auction outcomes as signals of developers' future expectations, but if the winning bid is too high, it's seen as a winner's curse. Even with joint bidding, the market worries about the winner's curse more than getting a good deal. More competition at auction is seen as a positive sign for future property prices.