Global trade flows drive financial market impacts more than foreign investment.
The article examines why big changes in major financial markets affect other markets worldwide. It uses a model to study how factors like global trends, sector performance, and country-specific factors impact market returns. By analyzing data on connections between the world's top five economies and 40 other markets, the study finds that direct trade plays a crucial role in how shocks spread from big economies to global stock and bond markets. In the late 1990s, trade flows were a significant factor in transmitting market movements, while foreign investment didn't have as much impact. Despite the rise in global financial flows, direct trade remains the key driver of how changes in major markets influence financial markets globally.