Inflation and Unemployment: No Long-Run Tradeoff, New Policy Implications.
The Phillips Curve, a concept from 1958, showed a link between inflation and unemployment in U.S. economic policy until 1996. Initially, there was a belief in a tradeoff between inflation and unemployment, but stagflation in the 1970s challenged this idea. By the 1980s, the Federal Reserve successfully reduced inflation without as much unemployment as expected. By 1996, the U.S. central bank had a model without a long-term tradeoff between inflation and unemployment. Policymakers accepted that there was no tradeoff at a 3% inflation rate, but some believed there were short-term tradeoffs. This article looks at how the Phillips Curve influenced U.S. economic policy from 1958 to 1996.