Order flow, not fundamentals, drives exchange rate volatility, study finds.
Exchange rate volatility is mostly influenced by order flow, not economic factors. By introducing varying levels of information about future economic fundamentals, a model was created to explain this. The model shows that short to medium-term exchange rate changes are not strongly linked to economic fundamentals, but over longer periods, they are. Exchange rate movements do not predict future economic fundamentals well, and order flow plays a significant role in determining exchange rates.