Structural breaks in interest rates alter inflation prediction accuracy.
The article looks at Australian interest rates over time and finds that there were two major economic events that caused significant changes in interest rates. These changes affected how interest rates are related to each other, which can impact how accurately we can predict future changes in inflation. The study shows that while short-term interest rates follow a predictable pattern, long-term interest rates can be influenced by unexpected shifts, making it harder to use them to forecast inflation. This information is important for policymakers who rely on interest rates to make decisions about the economy.