New Study Predicts European Real Estate Bubble Collapses Before They Happen
The article forecasts the collapse of speculative bubbles in European securitized real estate. The researchers aim to identify and time these bubbles to help investors make buy or sell decisions. They use a model that detects collapsing bubbles with a time-varying probability of collapse. The study focuses on REIT indices in Europe and uses methods like the dividend multiple approach and Campbell and Shiller's VaR model to calculate fundamental values. The findings suggest that by using bubble detection models, investors can forecast and potentially profit from the rise and fall of speculative bubbles in the securitized real estate market.