Government responses fuel self-fulfilling currency crises, leading to economic turmoil.
Governments sometimes struggle to keep their currency value stable. When a crisis hits, they have to decide whether to stick to their fixed exchange rate or let it go. This decision can be influenced by how people think the government will react. If market participants expect a crisis, it can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Previous studies on currency crises often overlook how governments respond to market pressures. This article introduces two models showing how crises can happen when private economic actors and governments clash over policy goals. Unexpected changes in expectations can turn a seemingly stable exchange rate into a shaky one.