Developing nations' trade deals could boost or bust economies worldwide
The article evaluates the impact of regional trade agreements (RTAs) involving developing countries. Researchers analyzed trade flows from 1962 to 2006 using a two-step estimation approach. They first estimated a gravity equation without RTA variables, then used trade residuals to run a kernel regression for each RTA. This method captures the changing trade effects of RTAs over time with minimal model structure. The study emphasizes the importance of ensuring that trade creation outweighs trade diversion in RTAs, especially in a post-crisis world with limited resources.