German Consumption-Wealth Ratio Predicts Business Cycles, Unemployment Rate Shifts.
The article examines how consumption, wealth, and income are related in Germany from 1980 to 2003. It shows that changes in income are mainly predicted by deviations from the long-term relationship between consumption and wealth. The German consumption-wealth ratio can forecast various economic indicators, like the unemployment rate. Unlike in some other countries, in Germany, changes in asset prices do not play a significant role in returning the consumption-wealth ratio to its long-term average. However, the U.S. consumption-wealth ratio can predict changes in the German stock market. This difference may be due to variations in financial and pension systems between Germany and Anglo-Saxon countries.