UK Natural Gas Futures Risk Premium Soars, Winter Prices Affected
The study looked at risk premiums in UK natural gas futures trading. They compared traditional risk premiums with those from rolling over positions in the front contract. The results showed that rolled-over positions have significantly higher risk premiums, especially as the delivery time approaches. Day-ahead risk premiums were also measured for the first time, averaging 0.5% per day. Risk premiums were found to be larger and more volatile in winter. Factors like reservoirs, weather, and market conditions were able to explain a significant portion of the risk premium variations.