Macroeconomic forecasts are often based on a mix of math models and human judgment, which can lead to bias. Recent research looked at different ways to evaluate these forecasts. They compared forecasts from the Federal Reserve Board's staff and the FOMC on inflation, unemployment, and GDP growth. The study found that the FOMC's intuition didn't significantly improve their forecasts compared to the staff's model-based forecasts. This challenges the idea that the FOMC has special forecasting skills.