GDP gap emerges as key driver of US inflation pressure.
The study looked at how well a certain economic model explains inflation in the US. They found that the gap between actual and potential economic output does affect inflation, despite some previous studies saying otherwise. However, the role of labor income share in predicting inflation was not significant. The researchers also created a new model that showed the output gap still matters for inflation even without certain statistical issues. Overall, past inflation was more important than expected future inflation in predicting current prices during the years 1968 to 2005.