Credit supply shocks drive UK lending weakness and economic downturn.
The study looked at why UK banks lent less money and the economy slowed down during financial crises. They found that problems with getting credit caused most of the lending decrease and a big part of the economic slowdown. These credit issues acted more like supply problems than demand problems, affecting output and inflation in opposite ways. This could be because credit troubles impact how much the economy can produce or because they affect exchange rates. The results stayed consistent even with different ways of looking at the data, except when they treated interest rate differences as a non-changing factor and put long-term limits on the model.