Futures Pricing Reveals Stock Market Secrets, Impacts Trading Strategies.
The article explains how futures prices can be more informative than stock prices due to short sales constraints. Informed traders can only sell futures when they receive negative information, leading to differences in pricing between stocks and futures. The study shows that the basis is linked to futures returns, stock returns, and trading volume in the stock market. The model was tested using data from the Finnish index futures markets, where short sales were not allowed. The findings strongly support the theory proposed in the article.