Monthly economic data less reliable than surveys for GDP growth forecasts.
Short-term forecasts of euro area real GDP growth based on monthly indicators like industrial production and retail sales are commonly used by economic policy makers. A study assessed the reliability of these forecasts and found that while using actual activity data improves accuracy, it is harder to forecast and less timely than using surveys or financial indicators. The study decomposed forecast errors into model specification, extrapolation errors, data revisions, and GDP data series revisions. The results suggest that the benefits of using monthly data are offset by its challenges, providing a benchmark for future research.