German Banks' Risk Revealed: CDS Prices as Market Indicators Unveil Surprising Insights
The article examines how credit default swap (CDS) prices can be used to assess the risk of large German banks. By studying different types of risks, such as credit and liquidity risks, the researchers found that CDS spreads can provide valuable insights into the banks' financial health. They discovered that structural models may not be as effective as reduced-form models in predicting CDS spreads for banks with significant investment banking activities. Additionally, the study suggests that combining information from both equity prices and CDS premiums can give a more comprehensive understanding of market indicators for these banks.