The study looked at using a specific economic index to predict different types of recessions, not just the usual ups and downs. They found that a model with three recession types, including severe ones, was more accurate than just two types. The severe recession phase often happened during times of financial stress, like the 2007-2009 recession. This suggests that financial problems can make recessions worse. The index they used could predict severe recessions about 6.5 months before they happened, which could help prepare for tough times ahead.