Uncertainty in NAIRU could reshape monetary policy and impact inflation rates
The article rethinks the NAIRU concept for monetary policy. It suggests that defining NAIRU as a short-term concept and differentiating it from the natural rate of unemployment could be beneficial. Uncertainty about NAIRU's level doesn't mean policy should react less to the NAIRU gap, but uncertainty about its effect on inflation may require adjustments to policy. Uncertainty about how the policy instrument affects the NAIRU gap could reduce the policy response. The researchers estimated a NAIRU gap model for the US to measure uncertainty and see how it impacts the policy reaction function.