Stock market prediction breakthrough: Large-cap portfolios lead small-caps by a month!
The article introduces a model that can show how different variables move together in cycles, even if they are not perfectly in sync. This model can handle different amounts of delay in the cycles, different numbers of cycles, and different levels of volatility and correlation. When applied to stock market data, the model with three cycles and varying delays and volatility best explained the returns on different types of stocks. It was found that large and small companies tend to move together during market booms and crashes, but large companies lead small companies in more stable market conditions.