Market Expectations Challenge Traditional Interest Rate Predictions with Time-Variation Discovery.
The study looked at how interest rates change over time by analyzing market predictions. They found that while the way people predict interest rates isn't always logical, there is evidence that forward rates can still give a rough estimate of future rates. The study also showed that term premia (extra returns on long-term investments) change over time, and this change can be partly explained by certain mathematical models. Additionally, the volatility of term premia (how much they vary) is important in understanding these changes. Lastly, the study found that there isn't a big difference between how interest rates in different currencies behave.