Stock prices leading earnings shift investor focus to future anticipated earnings.
Stock prices tend to predict future earnings because they reflect information more continuously than accounting income does. A model was created to show that as the time it takes for earnings to be recognized increases, investors rely more on expected future earnings rather than current earnings. This shift happens because rules meant to make earnings more reliable end up making them less timely. The study found that stock prices do indeed lead earnings, with the importance of future earnings increasing as the recognition lag grows.