New model predicts Belgian economy's growth with leading international indicators.
The article analyzes data from various sources to understand the Belgian business cycle and predict GDP growth. By using a special statistical model, the researchers identified key indicators that lead, lag, or coincide with GDP growth. They found that national business surveys align with Belgian GDP, while consumer confidence lags behind. However, forecasts based on this information alone are not accurate due to other factors affecting GDP variance. Reducing the data set helped somewhat, but did not significantly improve the forecasts.