Optimal monetary policy prioritizes inflation stability for economic prosperity.
The article uses a Bayesian approach to estimate monetary policy preferences in a model for the euro area. Instead of a traditional Taylor rule, the model assumes that policymakers optimize a quadratic loss function over time. The study finds that controlling inflation variability is the top priority for optimal monetary policy, followed by interest rate smoothing and the output gap. Including wage inflation as a target variable slightly worsens the model's performance. To address time inconsistency, the researchers use data from a 40-quarter period to improve their estimates.